Tuesday, May 5, 2009

PUBL.- Tajikistan Faces Crisis of Statehood - Maciej Falkowski (OSW)

Distrib. by: Central-Eurasia-L - Announcement List for Central Eurasian Studies


PUBL.- Tajikistan Faces Crisis of Statehood - Maciej Falkowski (OSW)

Posted by: Antonina Michalowska <antonina.michalowska@osw.waw.pl>

The publication of The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Warsaw.

New OSW Commentary: "Tajikistan Faces Crisis of Statehood" by Maciej Falkowski.

The effects of the global economic crisis, the deep energy crisis of
late 2008 and early 2009, and the rising tension in relations with
Russia have dramatically exacerbated the social and economic problems
with which Tajikistan has been struggling since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, and have worsened the country's internal political
crisis. The consequences of the economic crisis and the progressing
decomposition of Tajikistan's state structures may bring the country
to a stage where it will transform into a 'failing state' - unable to
perform its basic functions, posing a threat to the stability of its
neighbours and seriously impeding NATO's stabilisation operation in
Afghanistan. Within the next few months, an outbreak of open
manifestations of popular discontent is also possible, or attempts may
even be made to overthrow the central government, and Tajikistan may
become submerged in chaos and internal conflicts. As Tajikistan's
economy depends on Russia, the direction of developments will be
determined by the economic situation in the Russian Federation.

Full text can be found at:
http://www.osw.waw.pl/files/commentary_22.pdf

Other OSW's publications can be found at: www.osw.waw.pl


Antonina Michalowska
External Relations Coordinator
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Warsaw, Poland
tel. (+48 22) 525 80 00,
fax (+48 22) 525 80 40
www.osw.waw.pl


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1 comment:

Sunatullo said...

Very superficial analysis, just political declaration...